OilFlow morning brief — 2026-04-24

• Brent: $98.7
• Wti: $94.81
• Dubai: $96.7

MORNING BRIEF — Physical Crude & Products Desk (Pakistan / Gulf / East Africa)

Crude benchmarks softened modestly in the latest session, with Brent settling at $98.70/bbl (-$0.65) and WTI at $94.81/bbl (-$1.04), widening the Brent-WTI spread to roughly $3.89/bbl — a level that continues to incentivize US Gulf Coast exports into Atlantic Basin and, selectively, into Asia via the Cape. Dubai marker printed $96.70, keeping the Brent-Dubai (EFS) spread at around $2.00/bbl, a narrow band that mildly favors Middle Eastern sour grades into Asian refiners versus Atlantic Basin sweets. For Pakistani, Indian, and Bangladeshi buyers relying on Arab Light, Murban, and Upper Zakum, the tight EFS supports term lifters holding discipline on spot spot tenders this week.

Headline flow is mixed and, frankly, contradictory across the tape: one wire cites crude "nearing $110 on Iran war tensions," while another reports prices easing on prospective US–Iran talks. Screen prices are the arbiter — and the screen says the market is digesting, not breaking out. StanChart's framing of $95 as the new equilibrium aligns with where Dubai and WTI are trading. The reported sharp draw in US crude and product inventories is supportive underneath, and the Phillips 66 Jones Act waiver — the first such use — is a structural signal that US domestic logistics remain tight enough to pull foreign-flag tonnage onto coastwise moves, a bullish tell for USGC clean freight.

Refined products: with crude soft but product inventories drawing, gasoil and jet cracks in Singapore and AG should hold firm. Pakistani gasoil importers (PSO, refiners topping up) face a constructive AG-Karachi landed economics window given the modest $4.60/mt Saudi–Pakistan and $5.20/mt Pakistan–UAE flat freight. East Africa remains the premium-netback destination: UAE–Kenya at $7.40/mt and UAE–Tanzania at $8.10/mt keep Mombasa and Dar deliveries workable for AG-origin gasoil and jet, while the West Africa–East Africa route at $14.20/mt effectively prices WAF barrels out unless Gulf supply tightens further.

FX is a quiet headwind: PKR at 278.94, KES at 129.12, BDT at 122.71, and LKR at 316.94 continue to squeeze downstream margins on USD-denominated cargoes; hedged LC structures remain essential. IDR at 17,302 keeps Indonesian buyers sensitive to any crude spike.

Iran-related headline risk is the dominant two-way swing factor; position sizing should reflect gap risk on weekend news. Inventory draws argue against aggressive shorts.

This market intelligence is for informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice.

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