OilFlow morning brief — 2026-04-25

• Brent: $99.13
• Wti: $94.4
• Dubai: $97.13

CRUDE BENCHMARKS: Brent settled at $99.13/bbl (-$0.22), WTI at $94.40/bbl (-$1.45), and Dubai assessed at $97.13/bbl. The widening Brent-WTI spread to $4.73/bbl reflects firmer Atlantic basin demand against softening US balances, while the narrow Brent-Dubai gap of $2.00/bbl keeps Middle Eastern sour grades structurally competitive into Asia. WTI's sharper decline appears tied to Phillips 66's first use of a Jones Act waiver to move US crude domestically, suggesting incremental coastal supply easing Gulf Coast tightness. Standard Chartered's call that $95/bbl represents a new equilibrium aligns with the current trading range.

REFINED PRODUCTS & INVENTORIES: US crude and product inventories reportedly came down sharply, but crude price gains were offset by product draws, indicating refiners are running hard but struggling to rebuild stocks. This is constructive for middle distillate cracks heading into Q2. European energy stress continues, with reports citing $28B spent without commensurate supply gains—supportive for gasoil flows from AG and India into NWE, which tightens product availability for East African importers.

FREIGHT & CORRIDORS: Flat rates remain workable across our coverage. Saudi-Pakistan at $4.60/mt and Pakistan-UAE at $5.20/mt keep short-haul AG arbitrage economics open. UAE-East Africa lanes (Kenya $7.40/mt, Tanzania $8.10/mt) are the cleanest path for gasoil and jet into Mombasa and Dar. The West Africa-East Africa rate at $14.20/mt remains prohibitive, reinforcing AG dominance for EA cargoes. Pakistan-Bangladesh at $6.10/mt and UAE-Bangladesh at $7.90/mt suggest Chittagong continues to pull from both origins. FX: PKR at 279.83 and LKR at 317.63 remain stretched, pressuring South Asian buyer affordability and likely capping import pulls; INR at 94.28 is steadier.

GEOPOLITICS: Iran-US tensions remain the dominant headline risk, capping downside on Brent despite weak macro tone. Druzhba pipeline flows are reportedly restarting today, marginally bearish for Urals differentials and supportive of European product length. Traders should watch for any retaliatory Iranian posture in the Strait of Hormuz, which would immediately reprice Dubai and AG freight.

TRADING TAKEAWAY: Maintain length on AG-East Africa gasoil arbs; stay cautious on PKR-denominated import commitments given FX fragility. Watch Dubai structure for backwardation steepening on any Hormuz escalation.

This market intelligence is for informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice.

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