OilFlow morning brief — 2026-04-28

• Brent: $102.61
• Wti: $97.41
• Dubai: $100.61

MORNING BRIEF — Physical Crude & Products Desk

Crude benchmarks opened firmer this session. Brent settled at $102.61/bbl (+$0.92), WTI at $97.41/bbl (+$1.04), and Dubai at $100.61/bbl. The Brent-Dubai spread compressed to roughly $2.00/bbl, a constructive signal for Asian refiners pulling Atlantic Basin barrels, while Brent-WTI sits near $5.20/bbl, supportive of continued US export economics into Europe and West Africa. EIA flagged that Brent spot has surged past futures in April — a classic backwardation signal pointing to physical tightness rather than paper-driven strength.

Geopolitics remain the dominant price driver. Stalled US-Iran talks and reported Hormuz disruptions have re-injected a war premium into Middle East grades; even with Hormuz potentially reopening, structural rerouting and insurance costs appear sticky. Europe has emerged as a meaningful buyer of US SPR barrels, which is keeping transatlantic flows tight and indirectly firming Mediterranean and West African differentials. Goldman has again raised its price deck, and US shale drillers are reportedly scaling back rig counts despite the rally — a bearish signal for 2H supply elasticity.

For the Pakistan-Gulf-East Africa corridor, the picture is mixed. PKR at 278.79 and LKR at 317.89 continue to pressure South Asian importer margins; every $1/bbl rise in Dubai translates into meaningful FX-adjusted pain for PSO and Ceylon Petroleum. KES at 129.23 is relatively stable, preserving East African purchasing power. AED peg at 3.6725 unchanged.

Freight is the bright spot for regional arbitrage. Saudi-Pakistan flat rates at $4.60/mt (~$0.63/bbl) and UAE-Pakistan at $5.20/mt remain well below Atlantic Basin equivalents, keeping Gulf-origin gasoil and jet competitive into Karachi. UAE-Kenya at $7.40/mt and UAE-Tanzania at $8.10/mt support continued Gulf gasoil flows into Mombasa and Dar es Salaam, particularly as West Africa-East Africa rates remain elevated at $14.20/mt — effectively closing any Atlantic backhaul arb into East Africa.

Trading focus today: (1) watch Dubai cash differentials for any widening on Hormuz headlines; (2) monitor Singapore gasoil cracks given tightening Asian middle distillate balances; (3) South Asian buyers should consider locking term freight before any war-risk insurance hike; (4) East African importers retain a freight advantage sourcing from AG over WAF.

Note: News headlines lack timestamps in today's feed; treat narrative as directional rather than time-stamped. Product crack and differential data not available in today's feed — spreads inferred from benchmark moves only.

This market intelligence is for informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice.

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