OilFlow morning brief — 2026-05-09

• Brent: $101.29
• Wti: $95.42
• Dubai: $99.29

CRUDE BENCHMARKS: Brent settled at $101.29/bbl (+$1.23), WTI at $95.42 (+$0.61), and Dubai assessed at $99.29. The Brent-WTI spread widened to $5.87/bbl, supportive of trans-Atlantic WTI flows into NW Europe and the Med. The Brent-Dubai EFS narrowed to ~$2.00, tightening East-of-Suez economics for Atlantic Basin barrels heading to Asia-Pacific buyers. Note: MOPS, ARA, USGC, Singapore product cracks, Worldscale, BDTI and BCTI tape were not available in today's feed — directional commentary below is inferred from crude moves and freight flat rates, not from observed assessments.

GEOPOLITICAL DRIVERS: Headlines today are dominated by conflicting signals around U.S.-Iran de-escalation. Wire reports cite both a reported 14-point framework deal and a separate exchange of fire in the Strait of Hormuz, producing whipsaw price action. A reported $920mm short placed shortly before the deal headline is circulating on the tape and warrants caution on positioning. Net-net, Brent has held a risk premium of an estimated $3-5/bbl tied to Hormuz transit risk; any confirmed de-escalation would likely compress Dubai relative to Brent and weaken Mideast Gulf sour differentials. Separately, Venezuela is reportedly closing multi-billion dollar upstream deals, signaling incremental medium-sour supply returning to the USGC and Asian heavy-sour pools over the medium term — bearish for Maya, Merey, and competing Basrah Heavy diffs.

CORRIDOR & FREIGHT VIEW: Flat rates (USD/mt) provided: Saudi-Pakistan 4.6, Saudi-India 5.3, UAE-Bangladesh 7.9, Pakistan-Kenya 8.9, UAE-Kenya 7.4, Malaysia-Indonesia 3.8, West Africa-East Africa 14.2. AG-South Asia clean tanker economics remain the cheapest active route, supporting MR arbitrage of gasoil and jet from Jamnagar/Ruwais into Karachi, Chattogram and Mombasa. Intra-SE Asia (Malaysia-Indonesia) at $3.8/mt remains structurally tight on RON95 and gasoil. West Africa-East Africa at $14.2/mt continues to penalize Atlantic-sourced replacements into Mombasa/Dar, keeping the AG the natural supplier.

FX: PKR 278.8, INR 94.5, BDT 122.7, KES 129.2, IDR 17,354, MYR 3.92. Weak South Asian and East African currencies versus a firm USD continue to compress importer margins; PSO, BPC and KPC tender economics will feel the squeeze if Brent extends above $102.

DATA LIMITATIONS: Product cracks, Worldscale points, and tanker indices were unavailable; arb estimates below are directional, derived from crude differentials and provided flat rates only.

This market intelligence is for informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice.

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