OilFlow morning brief — 2026-05-13

• Brent: $106.22
• Wti: $100.63
• Dubai: $104.22

Crude benchmarks softened in overnight trade despite a backdrop of unresolved Iran tensions. Brent settled at $106.22/bbl (-$1.55), WTI at $100.63/bbl (-$1.55), and Dubai at $104.22/bbl, leaving the Brent-Dubai EFS near $2.00/bbl — a relatively narrow spread that continues to favor Atlantic Basin barrels moving East. The Brent-WTI arb sits at $5.59/bbl, wide enough to keep USGC export economics open to Europe and selective Asian buyers, particularly with WAF grades competing into Indian and Chinese refiner slates. MOPS Dubai-linked term flows remain firm given Aramco's commentary on a slow recovery from recent supply losses, suggesting OSPs into Asia will hold a premium next cycle.

Refined product complexes are mixed. ARA gasoil cracks remain supported by sustained European middle-distillate tightness, while USGC distillate cracks have eased modestly as inland stock builds catch up. Singapore 10ppm gasoil cracks against Dubai are holding in the high single digits, keeping West-to-East distillate arbs marginal but open for prompt cargoes. Gasoline cracks in Singapore are firmer than ARA, reflecting steady South Asian and Indonesian demand pull ahead of summer driving and post-monsoon restocking.

Freight is the swing variable. On clean tonnage, Pakistan-UAE at $5.2/mt and Saudi-Pakistan at $4.6/mt remain workable for MR economics into AG-South Asia trades. UAE-East Africa at $7.4/mt (Kenya) and $8.1/mt (Tanzania) keeps Gulf gasoil competitive versus Indian re-exports. The West Africa-East Africa lane at $14.2/mt is punitive and effectively closes any opportunistic WAF gasoline diversion eastward. Malaysia-Indonesia at $3.8/mt remains the cheapest intra-Asia clean lane, sustaining MOPS-linked regional balancing. BDTI and BCTI indices were not refreshed in today's feed — values inferred from flat-rate context only.

Geopolitically, the headline risk remains the Strait of Hormuz: multiple wires reference a closure scenario and Trump's rejection of Iran's latest offer, with ceasefire described as "on life support." Any confirmed disruption would re-rate Dubai sharply higher and blow out AG-origin freight. Conversely, a surprise de-escalation would compress the current $4-6/bbl geopolitical premium embedded in Brent.

FX-wise, PKR (278.9), INR (95.7), and BDT (122.9) continue to pressure South Asian importer margins, while a firmer MYR (3.93) modestly aids Malaysian refiner netbacks. East African importers face KES at 129.2, manageable but tight on USD liquidity.

Data note: news_rss timestamps are null and freight tape is partial — directional reads are higher confidence than absolute spread levels.

This market intelligence is for informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice.

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