OilFlow morning brief — 2026-05-15

• Brent: $107.04
• Wti: $102.49
• Dubai: $105.04

Crude markets opened firmer with Brent settling at $107.04/bbl (+$1.32) and WTI at $102.49/bbl (+$1.32), narrowing the Brent-WTI arb to roughly $4.55/bbl — tight enough to discourage incremental transatlantic flows from USGC to NW Europe / Med. Dubai printed $105.04/bbl, leaving the Brent-Dubai EFS near $2.00/bbl, a level that keeps Atlantic Basin barrels (WAF, North Sea, US WTI Midland) competitive into Asia-Pacific refiners but does not fully open the West-to-East arb on a delivered basis given Suez and Cape routing economics.

Geopolitics remain the dominant price driver. Multiple headlines confirm the US-Iran ceasefire framework is fragile ("life support"), with Iran reportedly handling Strait of Hormuz transits on a case-by-case basis — a material shipping risk for Gulf loaders moving to South Asia (Pakistan, India, Bangladesh), East Africa, and the Far East. StanChart flags that the recent physical premium collapse may be temporary; Dubai partials, Murban, and Oman OSP differentials bear watching into next week's trading window. US crude and gasoline inventories continue drawing sharply, supporting USGC cracks and pulling Latin American (Brazilian, Guyanese) and WAF barrels toward PADD 3.

Refined products: with no direct ARA, Singapore MOPS, or USGC product quotes in today's feed, spreads are inferred. Singapore gasoil cracks likely remain firm on Asian summer demand and Hormuz risk premium; ARA gasoil should track higher on sympathy. USGC RBOB cracks are underpinned by the inventory draw narrative. SE Asia (Malaysia-Indonesia) gasoil and jet flows remain steady; freight on that 3.8 $/mt lane is the cheapest active corridor in our set.

Freight: flat rates from the data show Saudi-Pakistan at $4.60/mt and Saudi-India at $5.30/mt — competitive for AG refiners pushing distillate and fuel oil into South Asia, where PKR (278.99) and INR (95.82) FX weakness is squeezing importer margins. UAE-East Africa lanes (Kenya $7.40, Tanzania $8.10) and UAE-Bangladesh ($7.90) remain workable; WAF-East Africa at $14.20/mt is the most expensive lane, reflecting tonnage tightness on the Cape route amid Red Sea diversions. BDTI/BCTI proxies not directly available today — treat freight commentary as directional.

FX: IDR (17,474) and LKR (324.6) continue to pressure SE/South Asian product affordability; AED peg stable at 3.6725.

This market intelligence is for informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice.

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