OilFlow morning brief — 2026-07-05

• Brent: $72.13
• Wti: $68.78
• Dubai: $70.13

Crude benchmarks opened firmer but range-bound. Brent settled at $72.13/bbl (+$0.33), WTI at $68.78 (+$0.09), and Dubai assessed at $70.13, keeping the Brent-Dubai EFS narrow at roughly $2.00/bbl — a structurally supportive signal for Atlantic Basin barrels moving East (WAF, North Sea, US Gulf grades into Asia). WTI-Brent held near -$3.35, insufficient on paper to strongly incentivize incremental US Gulf crude exports to Europe without freight support, though USGC-to-Rotterdam Aframax economics remain workable given soft Atlantic tonnage.

The dominant macro theme is the tentative U.S.-Iran peace framework and expectations of freer Hormuz transit. Headlines cite an approximately 5% one-day sell-off earlier in the week on the deal announcement, with prices since stabilizing as traders question implementation. OilPrice notes U.S. crude inventories continue to draw as Hormuz flows slowed at the start of the negotiation window — a bullish counterweight that has capped downside. Net: the front of the curve is caught between demand-side optimism and a potential supply unlock from Iranian barrels returning at scale (est. 1.2–1.5 mb/d incremental if sanctions ease materially).

Refined products (inferred, not quoted today): ARA gasoline cracks should remain supported by peak summer driving; USGC distillate cracks firm on continued low inventories; Singapore gasoil likely soft as Middle East export barrels look for homes. MOPS 92 RON tracking Dubai flat-price moves. No live product assessments available in today's data set — traders should verify against Platts/Argus.

Freight: flat rates provided show Saudi–Pakistan CPP at $4.60/mt, Saudi–India $5.30/mt, UAE–Kenya $7.40/mt, West Africa–East Africa $14.20/mt, and Malaysia–Indonesia $3.80/mt. These levels suggest MR tonnage in the AG is comfortably supplied; the WAF–EAF leg remains structurally expensive due to limited backhaul. BDTI/BCTI indices not in today's feed — inferred stable to soft on easing Hormuz war-risk premia.

FX: PKR 278.04, INR 95.31, BDT 123.32, KES 129.23, IDR 17,978, LKR 335.69, MYR 4.07, AED 3.6725 pegged. South Asian and East African importer purchasing power modestly improved vs. last week's crude highs, opening a tactical restocking window for Pakistani OMCs and Kenyan/Tanzanian gasoil buyers before any Iran-driven price rebound reverses.

Corridors to watch: AG–South Asia gasoil (freight-advantaged), UAE–East Africa gasoline/gasoil (FX-supported demand), Malaysia–Indonesia intra-ASEAN CPP (tight freight economics). Latin America and NW Europe/Med lack today's data granularity — flagged as low-confidence.

Data caveat: product cracks, Worldscale points, and BDTI/BCTI are inferred from context, not sourced today. Freight figures are flat-rate estimates provided in the feed, not live Worldscale fixtures.

This market intelligence is for informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice.

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