OilFlow morning brief — 2026-06-02

• Brent: $94.2
• Wti: $91.28
• Dubai: $92.2

CRUDE BENCHMARKS: Brent settled at $94.20/bbl (-$0.78), WTI at $91.28/bbl (-$0.88), and Dubai at $92.20/bbl. The Brent-Dubai EFS has narrowed to roughly $2.00/bbl, keeping arbitrage of Atlantic Basin barrels into Asia marginal but workable for sweet medium grades. The Brent-WTI spread sits near $2.92/bbl, insufficient to pull incremental USGC cargoes into NW Europe at current Aframax economics. MOPS and Singapore product assessments were not in today's feed; traders should cross-check against broker runs before pricing East-of-Suez deals.

REFINED PRODUCTS: With no live ARA, USGC, or Singapore crack data in today's available sources, we flag this as an inferred section. Based on the crude move and recent structural trends, gasoil cracks likely held firm in NW Europe on continued diesel tightness, while USGC gasoline cracks remain seasonally supported. Singapore 10ppm gasoil spreads versus Dubai should be monitored given the Hormuz risk premium discussed below — any escalation would widen East-of-Suez middle distillate cracks sharply.

FREIGHT: Flat rate indications in our feed show Saudi-India at $5.30/mt, Saudi-Pakistan at $4.60/mt, UAE-Kenya at $7.40/mt, and West Africa-East Africa at $14.20/mt. Intra-Asia (Malaysia-Indonesia) remains cheap at $3.80/mt, supporting clean product redistribution. BDTI and BCTI index levels were not provided; the freight read is therefore corridor-specific rather than index-driven.

GEOPOLITICS: News flow is dominated by collapsing U.S.-Iran talks, with one source citing a 7% intraday surge on threats to close Hormuz, and separate reports of intensified Israeli strikes in Lebanon. These headlines conflict directionally with today's modest settlement declines in Brent and WTI, suggesting either the risk premium had already been priced or the bearish headlines (China buying pause, Iran deal optimism in other reports) are offsetting. The mixed signal warrants caution — headline whipsaw risk is elevated.

CORRIDOR READ: Gulf-to-South Asia economics remain the most robust open arb, with Saudi-Pakistan and Saudi-India freight low enough to absorb a stronger Dubai structure. UAE-East Africa flows remain economic on gasoil. West Africa-East Africa product moves are pressured by the $14.20/mt flat rate. NW Europe-Med remains balanced; Latin America corridors (not in feed) should be cross-referenced separately. SE Asia intra-regional clean product trade looks healthiest on freight alone.

DATA LIMITATIONS: Real data points today: Brent, WTI, Dubai prints; FX; corridor flat rates; news headlines. Inferred/estimated: product cracks, Worldscale points, BDTI/BCTI levels, MOPS assessments. Do not treat inferred figures as market quotes.

This market intelligence is for informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice.

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