OilFlow morning brief — 2026-06-13

• Brent: $87.33
• Wti: $84.88
• Dubai: $85.33

Crude markets sold off sharply overnight as geopolitical risk premium unwound following President Trump's reversal on planned strikes against Iran. Brent settled at $87.33/bbl (-$3.05), WTI at $84.88/bbl (-$2.83), and Dubai at $85.33/bbl. The Brent-Dubai EFS has compressed to roughly $2.00/bbl, narrowing arbitrage economics for Atlantic Basin barrels heading East. WTI-Brent spread holds near -$2.45/bbl, keeping US Gulf exports competitive into NW Europe and the Med.

In refined products, the unwinding of war premium is pressuring middle distillate cracks across all hubs. ICE gasoil cracks in ARA are expected to retreat from recent highs as the Strait of Hormuz risk discount fades; Singapore gasoil cracks should follow given the close linkage to Gulf flows. MOPS gasoil and jet remain underpinned by sustained regional aviation demand and limited Chinese export quotas, but downside risk is building. USGC RBOB cracks remain firm into peak driving season, while ULSD cracks are softer on demand concerns. Saudi Aramco is reportedly preparing another round of OSP cuts for Asian buyers in July, which would further compress East-of-Suez refiner margins but improve naphtha and fuel oil arb economics ex-Med.

Freight is mixed. VLCC TD3C (AG-China) and Suezmax TD20 (WAF-UKC) rates have eased as Iran de-escalation reduces war-risk premia and re-routing pressure around the Cape. BDTI is drifting lower; BCTI on MR routes (TC2, TC17) remains supported by tight tonnage in the Atlantic basin and strong East Africa import demand. Flat rates show competitive economics on Saudi-Pakistan ($4.60/mt), Saudi-India ($5.30/mt), and intra-ASEAN Malaysia-Indonesia ($3.80/mt) corridors. West Africa-East Africa at $14.20/mt remains the costliest active leg, reflecting limited MR availability south of the equator.

For South Asia, PKR at 278.45 and INR at 95.31 keep import affordability stretched; Pakistani and Bangladeshi refiners will benefit from any Saudi OSP cut. East Africa (KES 129.41) faces continued FX-driven product cost pressure, supporting UAE-Kenya and UAE-Tanzania gasoil flows. Indonesian rupiah weakness (IDR 17,855) and MYR at 4.06 are squeezing SE Asian importer margins but keeping intra-ASEAN trade economically rational. EIA reported continuing US crude inventory draws, which should provide a floor under WTI even as geopolitical premium fades. Watch for OPEC+ commentary and any Iranian retaliatory signaling that could rapidly reprice the curve.

This market intelligence is for informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice.

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