OilFlow morning brief — 2026-07-11

• Brent: $76.0
• Wti: $71.51
• Dubai: $74.0

GLOBAL CRUDE & PRODUCTS — MORNING BRIEF

Crude benchmarks opened mixed with a geopolitical bid returning to the front of the curve. Brent settled near $76.00/bbl (-$0.01), WTI at $71.51/bbl (+$0.10), and Dubai marked at $74.00/bbl. The Brent-Dubai EFS has compressed to roughly $2.00/bbl, keeping Atlantic Basin barrels only marginally uncompetitive into Asia and supporting continued West African flows to Indian and Chinese refiners. Brent-WTI at $4.49/bbl remains wide enough to sustain USGC light sweet exports to NW Europe and the Med, though Aframax tightness on TD25 is eroding some of that margin.

Refined product markets are flashing supply-crunch signals despite the range-bound crude tape (Reuters). ARA gasoil cracks remain firm on low Rhine barge inventories and steady West African gasoil demand pulling MR tonnage out of the Med. In the USGC, RBOB cracks are supported by summer driving season pull and USAC arbitrage economics, while Singapore MOPS gasoil is finding a bid on renewed Hormuz risk premium and firm South Asian buying — Pakistan and Bangladesh tenders are clearing at premiums to prior weeks. MOPS 92 RON gasoline is holding a modest premium to ARA, keeping the East-of-Suez arb marginal for European barrels.

Freight is the swing factor. Flat rates today: Saudi–Pakistan at $4.60/mt, Saudi–India $5.30/mt, Pakistan–UAE $5.20/mt, UAE–East Africa $7.40–8.10/mt, and West Africa–East Africa elevated at $14.20/mt reflecting Suezmax positioning tightness. Malaysia–Indonesia intra-ASEAN moves remain cheap at $3.80/mt, supporting continued gasoil and jet redistribution. BDTI is firming on renewed VLCC demand ex-AG; BCTI is well-supported by MR scarcity east of Suez.

Geopolitics dominates the tape. Multiple headlines cite renewed Hormuz supply risk and reports that a prior Iran ceasefire framework is "over," reversing last week's risk-off tone. EIA data continues to show US crude inventories in freefall, tightening the Atlantic Basin balance. FX moves are modest but notable for import parity: PKR at 278.25, INR at 95.44, BDT at 123.28, and IDR at 18,097 — all keeping South and Southeast Asian buyers price-sensitive at current flat prices.

Corridor watch: AG–South Asia gasoil, UAE–East Africa gasoline, and USGC–NWE distillate arbs remain the most economically live. Latin America (Brazil–USGC fuel oil, Argentina VGO pulls) is quiet but watch for Petrobras tender activity. Traders should size Hormuz tail risk into freight and insurance premia.

This market intelligence is for informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice.

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