Market Intel
OilFlow morning brief — 2026-07-13
MORNING BRIEF — CRUDE & PRODUCTS Crude complex opened sharply higher. Brent settled at $78.52 (+$2.51, +3.3%), WTI at $73.85 (+$2.44, +3.4%), Dubai marker at $76.52. The Brent-Dubai EFS narrowed to roughly $2.00/bbl, keeping Atlantic Basin...
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OilFlow morning brief — 2026-07-13
- Brent: $78.52
- Wti: $73.85
- Dubai: $76.52
MORNING BRIEF — CRUDE & PRODUCTS
Crude complex opened sharply higher. Brent settled at $78.52 (+$2.51, +3.3%), WTI at $73.85 (+$2.44, +3.4%), Dubai marker at $76.52. The Brent-Dubai EFS narrowed to roughly $2.00/bbl, keeping Atlantic Basin barrels competitive into East of Suez and supporting westbound Middle East flows. Brent-WTI held near $4.67/bbl, wide enough to keep US Gulf Coast export arbitrage open to NW Europe and Mediterranean refiners, though freight firmness on Aframax and Suezmax is compressing landed economics.
Note: MOPS, ARA, USGC and Singapore product cracks, plus Worldscale/BDTI/BCTI indices, were not in today's data feed (source degradation — 4 of 5 available). Directional commentary below is inferred from crude moves and news flow, not from observed product quotes.
Geopolitics is the dominant driver. Headlines flag renewed US-Iran military exchanges around the Strait of Hormuz, with equities selling off in tandem. Approximately 20 million bpd of crude and condensate — plus significant LPG and refined product volumes — transit Hormuz, and any sustained escalation puts a material risk premium into Dubai/Oman, DES India, and Singapore-delivered cargoes. Inferred impact: Dubai structure should back into steeper backwardation, MOPS gasoil and jet cracks likely firm on regional length concerns, and VLCC AG-East rates would spike (BDTI TD3C exposure).
EIA inventory headlines point to continued US crude stock draws, reinforcing WTI strength and tightening USGC sour differentials (Mars, WTI Midland). For NW Europe / Med refiners, this narrows the window to pull WTI Midland versus regional Urals-replacement grades (CPC, Johan Sverdrup, WAF). West Africa (Nigerian Bonny/Qua Iboe, Angolan Girassol) should see Asian buying interest firm if Hormuz risk persists — a classic diversification trade for Indian and Chinese refiners.
FX: PKR 278.04, INR 95.49, BDT 123.26, IDR 18,071, LKR 335.30, KES 129.18 — South Asian and East African importer margins remain pressured as USD-denominated crude climbs. Pakistani, Bangladeshi and Sri Lankan refiners face immediate landed-cost inflation on Saudi/UAE term liftings. Kenyan and Tanzanian product importers exposed on UAE-origin gasoil at freight of $7.4-8.1/mt.
Freight flat rates from data: Saudi-Pakistan $4.6/mt, Saudi-India $5.3/mt, UAE-Pakistan $5.2/mt, UAE-Bangladesh $7.9/mt, Malaysia-Indonesia $3.8/mt — intra-Asia economics remain the most defensible corridor absent a Hormuz closure scenario.
Trading stance: respect the geopolitical bid, avoid chasing flat price, focus on structure and regional differentials.
This market intelligence is for informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice.
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