OilFlow morning brief — 2026-08-03

• Brent: $83.24
• Wti: $79.32
• Dubai: $81.24

CRUDE BENCHMARKS: Brent settled at $83.24/bbl (-$4.69, -5.3%) and WTI at $79.32 (-$5.35, -6.3%) as diplomatic de-escalation between Washington and Tehran pulled the geopolitical risk premium out of the curve. Dubai printed $81.24, keeping the Brent-Dubai EFS near $2.00 — a level that reopens Atlantic Basin arb flows into Asia. WTI's steeper decline widened Brent-WTI to $3.92, favoring US Gulf exports to Europe and North Asia. MOPS-linked assessments in Singapore are expected to reset lower on the next print, tracking Dubai.

REFINED PRODUCTS: With flat price down 5%+, product cracks are likely to expand short-term as pump prices lag. ARA gasoil cracks should hold firm on structural European middle-distillate tightness; USGC diesel cracks face pressure from healthy refinery runs but remain supported by export pull to Latin America and West Africa. Singapore 10ppm gasoil and jet cracks look constructive given resilient regional aviation demand and Chinese export quota discipline. Fuel oil (Sing 380/180) should soften on weaker crude, but HSFO remains bid on bunker demand at Fujairah and Singapore.

FREIGHT: Clean tanker rates (BCTI proxy) on AG-East and Sing-Aus routes remain firm; MR economics from AG to East Africa (UAE-Kenya $7.4/mt, UAE-Tanzania $8.1/mt) support continued gasoil arb. Dirty (BDTI) VLCC AG-East is stable; Saudi-India at $5.3/mt and Saudi-Pakistan at $4.6/mt keep South Asian crude landed costs competitive. West Africa-East Africa at $14.2/mt remains the most expensive active leg, capping Nigerian product flows into Mombasa/Dar.

FX & EMERGING MARKETS: PKR at 277.75, INR at 95.48, BDT at 123.42, and LKR at 335.42 leave South Asian importers modestly relieved by the crude selloff — landed gasoil into Karachi and Chattogram should ease 3-5% week-on-week. KES at 129.52 supports Kenyan OMC margins. IDR at 18,076 remains a headwind for Pertamina's dollar-denominated crude slate; MYR at 4.09 is stable, keeping Malaysian condensate competitive into regional splitters.

GEOPOLITICS: Trump's decision to halt Iran strike plans is the dominant driver — the market has priced out the immediate Strait of Hormuz closure tail risk, but this remains a reversible political posture. Red Sea/Bab el-Mandeb transit risk lingers in the background; Houthi posture unchanged. Russian Urals discounts and G7 price cap enforcement continue to shape Asian crude procurement, with Indian refiners maintaining opportunistic lifting.

CORRIDOR FOCUS: AG-to-East Africa clean arb is the standout today on soft flat price plus stable freight. UAE-Bangladesh ($7.9/mt) and Pakistan-Bangladesh ($6.1/mt) intra-regional gasoil moves warrant monitoring as Dhaka rebuilds winter stocks.

This market intelligence is for informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice.

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