OilFlow morning brief — 2026-08-10

• Brent: $84.48
• Wti: $78.88
• Dubai: $82.48

CRUDE BENCHMARKS: Brent settled at $84.48 (+$0.93), WTI at $78.88 (+$0.70), and Dubai assessed at $82.48. The Brent-WTI spread widened to $5.60/bbl, supportive of transatlantic arbitrage of US light sweet grades (WTI Midland, Eagle Ford) into NW Europe and Med refiners. Brent-Dubai narrowed to $2.00/bbl, tightening arb economics for Atlantic Basin barrels moving East and favoring Middle East sour grades (Murban, Upper Zakum, Arab Light) into Asian refiners. MOPS assessments were not available in today's feed; Singapore complex margins should be inferred with caution.

REFINED PRODUCTS & REGIONAL SPREADS: With no direct ARA, USGC, or Singapore product prints in today's dataset, spread commentary is qualitative. Firmer crude with mixed demand signals (per Forbes, AAA) suggests gasoline cracks in USGC remain under pressure from softer US pump prices, while ARA gasoil should hold on winter heating positioning. Singapore 10ppm gasoil and jet cracks likely stable on steady South Asian and East African pull. MOPS 92 RON should track firm Dubai on regional restocking.

FREIGHT: Clean and dirty tanker flat rates in the AG–South Asia and intra-Asia basins remain moderate: Saudi–Pakistan $4.6/mt, Saudi–India $5.3/mt, Pakistan–UAE $5.2/mt, Malaysia–Indonesia $3.8/mt — supportive of short-haul MR economics. Longer hauls are heavier: West Africa–East Africa $14.2/mt reflects tight LR tonnage on the Atlantic-to-Indian Ocean leg. BDTI/BCTI indices not provided; VLCC AG–East and Suezmax WAF–UKC assumed range-bound absent fresh Worldscale data.

GEOPOLITICS: The dominant narrative is a two-way Strait of Hormuz story — Iran's restrictive draft plan initially spiked prices (CNBC), followed by a "breakthrough" narrative driving a sell-off (OilPrice, CryptoRank). Net effect today is a modest risk premium retained in Brent. Red Sea attack headlines add tail risk to Bab el-Mandeb transit and Suez-Med flows, keeping WAF–Europe and AG–Europe routings on alert for potential Cape re-routing. EIA notes lower US–Canada energy trade value in 2025, reflecting softer heavy sour differentials at USGC.

CORRIDOR OUTLOOK: AG–South Asia (Pakistan, India, Bangladesh) remains the most liquid arb window given tight freight and firm Dubai. UAE–East Africa (Kenya, Tanzania) gasoil flows economic on freight advantage vs WAF origin. FX headwinds persist for PKR (277.96), LKR (335.35), and IDR (17,862) — import parity pressure on South and SE Asian buyers. LatAm and NW Europe/Med color limited by absent product data.

This market intelligence is for informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice.

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