OilFlow morning brief — 2026-08-11

• Brent: $87.79
• Wti: $82.22
• Dubai: $85.79

Crude benchmarks opened firm with Brent at $87.79 (+$0.07) and WTI at $82.22 (+$0.09), while Dubai printed $85.79, keeping the Brent-Dubai EFS at roughly $2.00/bbl — a level that continues to favor Atlantic Basin barrels flowing East and keeps arb windows for WAF grades (Bonny Light, Girassol) into Asia marginally open. The Brent-WTI spread at $5.57/bbl remains wide enough to sustain US Gulf Coast crude exports to NW Europe and the Med, though softening freight has been the swing factor rather than flat price. MOPS and Singapore product data were unavailable in today's feed; traders should verify gasoil and jet cracks independently before pricing East-of-Suez cargoes.

Sentiment is caught between two opposing narratives. Headlines flag renewed doubt over a US-Iran understanding on Hormuz transit, with reports that Trump's compensation demand has stalled progress — this is what pushed WTI back above $82 and Brent toward $88 intraday in some prints. Offsetting that, Forbes and AAA note softer demand signals and lower US retail gasoline, consistent with a shoulder-season refined product build. Net: flat price is rangebound but geopolitical tail risk is asymmetrically to the upside.

Refined product spreads (ARA, USGC, Singapore) are not directly observable in today's dataset. Based on crude structure alone, ARA gasoline cracks likely remain under pressure post-summer, USGC distillate should stay supported on export pull to Latin America and West Africa, and Singapore gasoil is likely firm on any Hormuz premium. Treat these as inferred, not quoted.

Freight: flat rates on key AG/IOR lanes are constructive for arb math — Saudi-India at $5.3/mt and Saudi-Pakistan at $4.6/mt keep MEG-to-South Asia CFR economics workable; UAE-East Africa at $7.4/mt (Kenya) and $8.1/mt (Tanzania) support gasoil restocking flows into Mombasa and Dar. Malaysia-Indonesia at $3.8/mt is the cheapest intra-Asia leg, keeping intra-ASEAN gasoil and MOGAS movements fluid. The West Africa-East Africa route at $14.2/mt remains the most expensive and only works on wide FOB discounts. Worldscale, BDTI and BCTI indices were not in feed — inferred as steady.

FX: PKR at 277.58, INR at 95.37, BDT at 123.59, KES at 129.37, LKR at 335.05 and IDR at 17,757 all continue to squeeze importer margins in frontier South Asian and East African markets; expect demand rationing at the margin, particularly for Pakistani and Sri Lankan gasoil buyers. AED and MYR stable.

Data limitations: product cracks, Worldscale and BDTI/BCTI not in today's feed; product commentary is inferred from crude structure and freight. This market intelligence is for informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice.

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