OilFlow morning brief — 2026-08-12

• Brent: $89.49
• Wti: $83.73
• Dubai: $87.49

MORNING BRIEF — Crude complex firms on renewed Middle East risk premium. Brent settled at $89.49/bbl (+$0.58), WTI at $83.73 (+$0.53), and Dubai marker at $87.49, keeping the Brent-Dubai EFS near $2.00/bbl — narrow enough to keep Atlantic Basin barrels (WAF, U.S. WTI Midland, North Sea Forties/Johan Sverdrup) economically viable into Asia. WTI-Brent spread at -$5.76 supports continued U.S. Gulf Coast export pull, particularly into NW Europe (Rotterdam/ARA) and India's west coast refiners.

Headlines are dominated by U.S.-Iran tensions and the Strait of Hormuz posture, with multiple outlets (NYT, CNBC, OilPrice, Economic Times) reporting fresh vessel attacks and stalled diplomacy pushing crude back toward $90. EIA has reportedly raised its price forecast citing Middle East supply risk — a bullish structural signal for Q3/Q4 balances. AP notes equities softening as oil rallied ~5% intraday earlier in the week, indicating macro risk-off bleed.

Refined products (inferred, not quoted): Singapore MOPS gasoil cracks should firm on Hormuz risk given ~15% of global seaborne diesel transits the strait; expect Sing 10ppm gasoil crack widening toward $22-25/bbl. ARA gasoil likely tracking higher on sympathy plus low Rhine barge availability seasonally. USGC ULSD cracks steady; RBOB support fading post-summer. Fuel oil HSFO Singapore likely finding bunker demand support from re-routings around the Cape.

Freight: Flat rates in provided matrix show Pakistan-UAE at $5.2/mt, Saudi-India $5.3/mt, and UAE-Kenya $7.4/mt — consistent with a firm but not spiking MR/LR market. Any Hormuz escalation would spike BCTI (clean) sharply; war-risk premiums on AG loadings already elevated. VLCC AG-East (BDTI proxy) exposed to convoy/insurance surcharges. West Africa-East Africa at $14.2/mt reflects tonne-mile length and limited MR availability east of Suez.

Corridor read: Saudi/UAE → Pakistan and India remain the workhorse gasoil/jet flows; PKR at 277.7 and INR at 95.5 are stable enough to preserve importer margins. Bangladesh (BDT 123.5) and Sri Lanka (LKR 334.6) buyers face FX-driven affordability strain at $90 Brent. Indonesia (IDR 17,849) and Malaysia intra-ASEAN gasoil arb (Malaysia-Indonesia $3.8/mt freight) remains the tightest, most liquid short-haul play. East Africa (Kenya, Tanzania) continues to draw ex-AG MR cargoes; Mombasa discharge economics favor UAE origin over WAF given freight differential.

Latin America and NW Europe corridors not directly covered by today's freight matrix — traders should cross-check TC2/TC14 screens independently. Data limitation: news feed lacks timestamps; treat directional signals as confirmed, exact levels as indicative.

This market intelligence is for informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice.

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