OilFlow morning brief — 2026-08-13

• Brent: $88.77
• Wti: $82.9
• Dubai: $86.77

GLOBAL CRUDE & PRODUCTS MORNING BRIEF

Crude benchmarks are in mild retreat despite unresolved Middle East supply risk. Brent settled at $88.77/bbl (-$0.21), WTI at $82.90/bbl (-$0.37), and Dubai marker at $86.77/bbl. The Brent-Dubai EFS has compressed to roughly $2.00/bbl, keeping Atlantic Basin barrels only marginally uncompetitive into Asia and supporting continued Middle East term-lifter discipline. Brent-WTI sits near $5.87/bbl — wide enough to keep USGC export arbitrage to Europe and Asia open, particularly for WTI Midland into Rotterdam and into Singapore via Suez/Cape routings. MOPS-linked gasoil in Singapore remains firm on Middle East risk premia, with regrade (jet-gasoil) staying positive as North Asian jet demand holds.

Refined product spreads are mixed. ARA gasoil cracks are supported by cautious European diesel restocking ahead of autumn, while gasoline cracks in NW Europe are softening post-summer. USGC distillate cracks remain healthy on continued Latin American pull (Brazil, Mexico, Ecuador) and steady West Africa gasoline demand — Nigeria, despite Dangote ramp, still lifts USGC/ARA cargoes intermittently. Singapore 92 RON gasoline is well-bid on Indonesian and Vietnamese demand; fuel oil HSFO cracks remain compressed as Middle East bunker supply normalizes.

Freight is the swing factor. Reported flat rates (USD/mt): Saudi–India $5.3, Saudi–Pakistan $4.6, UAE–Pakistan $5.2, UAE–Bangladesh $7.9, UAE–Kenya $7.4, UAE–Tanzania $8.1, Pakistan–Kenya $8.9, Pakistan–Bangladesh $6.1, Malaysia–Indonesia $3.8, West Africa–East Africa $14.2. The AG–South Asia complex remains the cheapest tonne-mile route, favoring Gulf refiners (Ruwais, Ras Laffan, Jazan) supplying Karachi, Mumbai, and Chittagong. BDTI/BCTI proxies imply firm MR and LR1 sentiment east of Suez as owners price in Hormuz transit risk; Suezmax and VLCC rates west of Suez are steadier.

Geopolitically, the Strait of Hormuz stand-off dominates. Iran's conditional stance on reopening, combined with reported attacks, keeps a $3–5/bbl risk premium embedded in Dubai/Brent. Offsetting bearish signal: EIA reported a sizeable US crude inventory build, capping WTI and pressuring USGC light-sweet differentials (WTI Midland, Eagle Ford). Retail gasoline is easing in the US per AAA, consistent with softer front-month RBOB.

FX watch: PKR 277.86, INR 95.41, BDT 123.23, LKR 333.97, IDR 17,872, KES 129.24, MYR 4.09, AED 3.6725. Weak South Asian currencies continue to squeeze importer margins on USD-denominated cargoes, pressuring Pakistani and Sri Lankan OMCs on cover ratios.

Traders should monitor Hormuz headlines, US inventory follow-through, and East Africa demand tenders (KPC, TAZAMA) into next week.

This market intelligence is for informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice.

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